UFC Vegas 47 Betting Preview
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
#UFCVegas47
MMA Betting Preview
Let’s dive in.
SATURDAY 02/05/22
BROADCAST: ESPN+
VENUE: UFC APEX
LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
MATCHES: 13
THE MAIN CARD:
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT (185 LBS): #6 JACK HERMANSSON (22-6) VS #7 SEAN STRICKLAND (24-3)
Pretty big main event as the winner is knocking on the door for a title here on the horizon. The well rounded, #6 Jack Hermansson looks to make it two straight wins as he takes on #7 Sean Strickland (Clark Griswold would tell his kids to put earmuffs on around this guy) in a match up featuring contrasting styles, though both willing to hang in each other’s wheelhouse. Oddsmakers are really backing Strickland here in this matchup, and even at an open of -200, he still is getting tons of play from bettors. Strickland is well beyond recency bias at this point, as he’s rattle off four decisive wins since moving back to middleweight against some decent names along the way as well. This will be his second straight main event and takes on a guy that’s no stranger to the bright lights himself in Hermansson. Hermansson has fought the better opponents along the way, but has a few losses against guys in that upper echelon, and Strickland could make a statement for that club with a decisive win here on Saturday night.
Looking into this fight, the matchup stylistically favors Strickland in my opinion. His gas tank and tendency to press non-stop will pose some issues on the feet against Hermansson. Hermansson has struggled in the past while fighting from the back foot, and has been dropped by guys like Vettori and Cannonier, both fighters who like to stay in your face. Strickland will do the same, and also has this “brand” he’s embraced, where he’s known for his trash talk and convo’s mid fight against his opponents, especially in venues such as the APEX where his chatter will carry. These antics and his constant volume in the standup will give him the edge on the feet especially with Hermansson’s inconsistent defense. Its no secret that Hermansson will probably look to (and want to) get this one down to the mat, just as he’s done in 10 of his 13 UFC fights. His attempts have been subpar though, only bringing a 36% success rate and that won’t fair too well against Strickland, who’s defended the last 13 attempts against him, validating his 82% defense rate. The last guy to take him down was some dude named Kamaru Usman back in 2017.
Although I see Strickland as the rightful favorite, Hermansson is crafty with the submissions, and could sneak something if he ends up in a favorable position somehow on the mat. Strickland has been known to get a little cocky in fights, and he’s fresh off a rear naked choke loss against Andy Varela back in December at the (non MMA) Submission Underground event, where he basically let Varela take his back, yet couldn’t escape.
I won’t be taking a side betting wise in this fight with the available lines. What does catch my eye though is the under 4.5 rounds while most see this going to a decision. We have a small APEX cage, Hermansson’s sneaky submission abilities, and Strickland’s constant onslaught. If you look at Hermansson’s last four opponents, the two losses are against guys with gas tanks. Vettori dropped Hermansson and almost finished him (keep in mind Vettori has just 2 KOs in 24 fights), and Cannonier TKO’d him like 20 seconds into the 2nd round. If Strickland doesn’t get caught in a choke, he has a decent shot at finishing this one via volume inside 25 minutes, preferably inside 22 minutes and 30 seconds for those choosing to ride with me on the under. Lets get it.
Implied probability:
Prediction: Sean Strickland
Bet: Strickland/Hermansson U4.5 rds -115
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT (185 LBS): PUNAHELE SORIANO (8-1) VS NICK MAXIMOV (7-0)
Maximov coming out of the Nick Diaz Academy is known for his grappling abilities will have a tough test on the feet when he stares across at Xtreme Couture’s, Punahele Soriano. Soriano is known for his ability to crack his opponents on the feet, and throws that one punch knockout power which has led to five knockout wins, all in the first round. If Maximov can weather the early onslaught, this fight could get interesting. Its without a doubt Maximov will look to grapple while Soriano will look to end things before the attempts come his way. (Maximov had 15 attempts in his last fight) It’s tough to tell though, as Soriano has had only one attempt come his way now four fights into his UFC career. Can he fend off the grappling and keep this one standing? We are about to find out. What we do know though is Maximov beyond 10 minutes is very suspect. His gas tank is up for question, while Soriano is fresh off just learning the importance of conserving after he gave a fight away to Brendan Allen which led to the first loss of his young career. I don’t see Soriano making that same mistake twice.
Implied probability:
Prediction: Punahele Soriano
Bet: Pass
WELTERWEIGHT BOUT (170 LBS): SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV (14-0) VS CARLSTON HARRIS (17-4)
Don’t miss this fight. This should be the co-main if anything. Shavkat Rakhmonov is 14-0 and all 14 wins have been via stoppage. The dude is so well rounded he’s even split his finishes down the middle with seven submission and seven knockouts. This guy is definitely to keep your eye on if you haven’t already and I’m intrigued to see what happens in this matchup because Carlston Harris is very underrated. Both Harris and Rakhmonov have finished their UFC opponents in each of their first two fights since joining the org. The line on this fight is a little wider than I expected. Although Rakhmonov has ran a clean slate, he has been hit and even dropped in past fights, although weathering the storm and taking control back on is way to finishes. Harris has some clean striking and could get through with some shots just as he did against Impa Kasanganay, where he finished him with strikes in less than three minutes. Although Harris is game, I have yet to bet against Rakhmonov and won’t change my stance here as well. So what do we do betting wise with such a price. I’m going to dive into the round props. Rakhmonov has only seen the third round once in his 14 fights, while Harris has only seen it once in the last six years. Both guys are extremely explosive and things are going to get hot right from the get go. These guys aren’t trying to outpoint each other.
Implied probability:
Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov
Bet: Fight won’t start round 3: -165
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT (205 LBS): SAM ALVEY (33-16-1) VS BRENDAN ALLEN (17-5)
Brendan Allen steps up on very short notice to take on the streaking Smilin’ Sam Alvey. By streaking I mean he’s 0-6-1 in his last seven UFC fights. Its questionable as to why Alvey is still employed by the UFC after this run, and no doubt he’ll look to win a clear decision or better here, after three of his last four losses have come by way of split decision. He cant catch a break. Brendan Allen was a -300 favorite in his last fight and got finished by Chris Curtis back in December. Not doubt he’s looking to erase that performance from our minds as he had previously went 9-1 in his previous 10, with his only defeat against Strickland. We are going to get a very honest effort from both guys here with the large majority of this one taking place on the feet. That said, Alvey throws at a very low output, always typically with quick counters after his opponent’s pounce. He’s a very slow starter and usually utilizes the first round to get his opponents timing down for later in the fights. Allen is just the opposite, and comes out looking to take control of the fight from the start, and lands at a much more rate than Alvey. Unless something crazy happens, this will put Allen up one round almost automatically, with Alvey needed to secure the last two or a finish. Its hard to take a guy that hasn’t won in seven straight fights, that comes out with that same fighting style time after time. Don’t forget though, this one is taking place at 205lb, up a division for Allen. Again anything can happen, but one thing that wont be is me taking Sam Alvey in this one.
Implied probability:
Prediction: Brendan Allen
Bet: Pass
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT (185 LBS): BRYAN BATTLE (6-1) VS TRESEAN GORE (3-0)
Bryan Battle comes in as the TUF 29 champ, as Gore suffered an injury and missed out on his spot in the finale and the potential to hold that title. That said, this is truly that TUF finale that should have happened, and Gore is heavily motivated to prove he should have been the rightful winner of that season. Battle is a popular dog play this week. He’s shown his grittiness and his ability to get into dog fights on his way to finishing his opponents. Tough spot though here against Gore. Gore is the more technical of the two on the feet, and should also have the edge if it gets to the mat. The athleticism coupled with the fired up motivation to prove he should have won the season should be visible and lead to a win by night’s end for Gore.
Implied probability:
Prediction: Tresean Gore
Bet: Gore -140
FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT (145 LBS): JULIAN EROSA (26-9) VS STEVEN PETERSON (19-9)
Peterson was the only fighter to miss weight this week, coming in three pounds over the limit and will fork over 30% of his purse to Erosa, though keeping the fight on for Saturday. Peterson is very durable and is tough to put away which will make for an interesting matchup in this one as Erosa is typically known as a finisher himself, only going to a decision in three of his 26 wins. Peterson will more than likely eventually shoot and look to control this one on the mat. If he continues to do so, it could open up an opportunity for Erosa to catch him in a sub at some point, giving the +400 prop some value.
Implied probability:
Prediction: Julian Erosa
Bet: Erosa (look via SUB +400)
PREDICTIONS ON PRELIMS:
JOHN CASTANEDA defeats MILES JOHN
HAKEEM DAWODU defeats MIKE TRIZANO
MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT defeats CHIDI NJOKUANI
ALEXIS DAVIS defeats JULIJA STOLIARENKO
JAILTON ALMEIDA defeats DANILO MARQUES
PHILIP ROWE defeats JASON WITT
DENYS BONDAR defeats MALCOLM GORDON
BET SUMMARY:
Strickland/Hermansson U4.5 rds -115
Rakhmonov/Harris: Fight won’t start round 3: -165
Gore -140
Erosa (look via SUB +400)
Castaneda +155
Davis by DEC -105
Almeida by SUB +120
Rowe -135
PARLAY CONSIDERATIONS:
Almeida/Bondar -155
Add Erosa +121
2022 predictions: 14-7 (67%)
2021 wagers: 8-4 (67%)
Overall record:
Predictions: 691-384-19 (64%)
Wagers: 381-222-9 (63%)
FOR DFS:
FOR THE DFS PLAYERS:
A couple of things I like to consider when playing MMA DFS:
· Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
· Play the heavyweights. The approximant overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
· Try to always include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
· Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
· Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.
Here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC Vegas 47. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.
Some recommendations:
· Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)
· Take a look at the title fights with the 5 rounds to work. A couple extra potential rounds to rack up some points.
· Top Tier fighters to build around include Almeida, Rakhmonov, Erosa
· Mid Tier fighter considerations are Strickland, Rowe, Soriano, Gore
· Live Dogs are Castaneda, Njokuani
Good luck everyone and I hope to see some of you cashing after Saturday night!
Casey
@Y2CASEY on the Twitter machine. Holler if you need anything. DMs are open.