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UFC VEGAS 46 FULL BETTING AND DFS PREVIEW

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze BETTING PREVIEW

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Let the 52-week season commence!

Time to kick down the door and get rolling with a few fights this weekend!  Although the kickoff card for 2022 isn’t a banger, it’s a solid warm up for the upcoming schedule on deck.  Ngannou vs Gane next weekend?!  Who’s amp’d for that one?!

We enter 2022 after going 8-1 with bets on the last card of 2021, snagging about 11 units on the night, which put us at just about +50 units in the last five months of the year. (That’s combat sports only.  We’ve been smashing NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, NBA, DFS, and more along the way as well)

For UFC only, predictions went 296-179-8 (62%) in 2021, with wagers at 163-131-1 (55%).  2021 was my softest year in awhile and it took my overall record while at Sports Illustrated down significantly to 677-377-19 (64%) for predictions, and 373-218-9 (63%) for wagers.

As a reminder, 2021 wrapped my time with SI, and as we dive right into 2022, I’m looking forward to setting up shop at the new home for my fight thoughts (and more), while also breaking down some doors and chopping it up with some of the industry and you as readers.  Its us versus the book!

Looking at this weekend’s card, it features two featherweight studs, #5 Calvin Kattar taking on #8 Giga Chikadze, and a win for either puts either fighter right in the discussion for a crack at the title.  Outside of the main event, the card is slated for nine other fights made up of fairly close matchups lacking much build up.  If we hadn’t been on a mini hiatus and itching for a card, social media would probably be bitching at this slate.  The real ones know though, there should be some good scraps that come out of this one.

You know the drill, let’s dive in.

SATURDAY 01/15/22

BROADCAST: ESPN+

VENUE: UFC APEX

LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada

MATCHES: 10

THE MAIN CARD:

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT (145 LBS):  #5 CALVIN KATTAR (22-5) VS #8 GIGA CHIKADZE (14-2)

Chikadze has some hype coming into this one.  It isn’t often you hear so many peers talking up another guy in the division, but with a win against Kattar, i’m not sure how you deny this guy a crack at the title.  Securing a win over the very durable Calvin Kattar, would make it 8-0 for Chikadze since entering the UFC, which includes three TKO victories in his last three fights.  A third round TKO against a very dangerous Edson Barboza back in August, sent him up quickly in the rankings to #8, and putting him in position to enter the top 5, but he must go through Kattar first. 

As for Kattar, you can never sleep on this guy.  He’s been away for a year, after surviving, yet suffering a considerable beatdown against former champ Max Holloway, which saw him absorb 445 significant strikes across the 25 minutes.  That right there can take years off your life.  Prior to that loss, Kattar won two straight over Dan Ige and Jeremy Stephens decisively, and his UFC record overall sits at 6-3, though facing a tougher strength of schedule in my opinion in comparison to Chikadze.  Kattar can wrestle, yet typically looks to keep things standing and for good reason, as his boxing is solid, and it’s coupled with finishing power, as we’ve seen in four of his last five wins.

Going into this matchup, I see Chikadze as the rightful favorite.  Kattar’s wheelhouse is the standup, and when he’s matched up against guys that just can’t hang with the technique and volume he possesses on the feet, its Kattar all day.  Chikadze though, is a tough matchup stylistically in this spot.  Chikadze put together a kickboxing record of 38-8 prior to entering MMA.   Although he will be more selective with his shots, and won’t have the volume of Kattar, he will get going with the leg kicks which should be key in him winning this fight.  Kattar’s three losses in the UFC have all come against guys that implemented the leg kicks and scored with ease.  I’m not saying this will be the decisive factor, but it will play a part in opening up shots upstairs along the way which will win rounds.  Before eventually getting caught in the second round by Kattar, Jeremy Stephens actually won the first round of their fight, and in that round, he landed 17 of 18 leg kicks, which played a big role in the start of that fight.  Chikadze’s last fight actually was against the guy most known for nasty leg kicks, in the likes of Edson Barboza, and Chikadze was not only able to outland him, but also eventually finish him.

You have to consider that neither fighter has never been finished via KO in a combined 43 MMA fights.  Both fighters have an average fight time over 10 minutes, with Kattar averaging over 2.5 rounds.  Kattar will the most durable fighter Chikadze has faced in the UFC.  He’s never been knocked down, and five of Chikadze’s seven UFC fights have reached the 3rd round regardless of the eventual outcome.  I will take a position on the over 2.5 rounds.

Implied probability:

Prediction: Giga Chikadze

Bet: Kattar/Chikadze O2.5 rounds

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT (265 LBS): CHASE SHERMAN (15-8) VS JAKE COLLIER (12-6)

This fight is so bad that its good.  I actually am interested to see how this goes down and the low-level big boys better deliver in this co-main spot.  Collier should be riding a two fight win streak, but was victim to a split decision loss to Carlos Felipe last June, in a fight I thought he won.  In that fight, he outlanded Felipe in all three rounds (130-94 overall) yet somehow Felipe got the nod.  Prior to that, Collier cruised through Gian Villante in a similar performance, landing 123 shots in that fight as well.  Here he faces Chase Sherman, who’s 1-5 in his last six UFC fights, though sprinkled in there three TKO wins over at Island Fights outside the org against some lower level fighters.  Sherman possesses very similar striking defense in comparison to Villante and Felipe (around the 50% range), and will slow the longer the fight goes.  Sherman was also to weigh in on Friday. Late night?  Give me Collier in an ugly one.

Implied probability:

Prediction: Jake Collier

Bet: Collier -135

FLYWEIGHT BOUT (125 LBS): #5 BRANDON ROYVAL (12-6) VS #7 ROGERIO BONTORIN (17-3)

Royval is all about the chaos in there, and Bontorin is about that life as well so this should be good.   Both guys are 1-2 in their last three, though collectively its somewhat deceiving. Royval although is wild with no gameplan typically, looked pretty good against the current champ, Brandon Moreno, until his shoulder popped, putting him in danger and unable to make the bell.  His next fight against Alexandre Pantoja found him in danger again, ultimately losing via submission, but respectfully against another top 5 guy.  Bontorin’s two losses referenced, come against Kai Kara France (whom Royval finished) and Ray Borg, who took him down 10 times.   Bontorin was flagged by USADA in June of 2021 for a potential doping violation and served a three-month suspension.   He typically is mysteries on the scale and it will be interesting to see how he fairs against the non-stop pressure from Royval.   Oddsmakers see Royval most likely by submission, but Bontorin’s isn’t the most defensive guy with the striking, and I see a path where Royval could catch him.

Implied probability:

Prediction: Brandon Royval

Bet: Royval -160 (look via TKO/KO +450)

WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT BOUT (125 LBS): #2 KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN (16-4) VS #4 JENNIFER MAIA (19-7-1)

The long awaited rematch.. just kidding.  Yup, Chookagian and Maia fought previously back in 2019, where Chookagian cruised to a unanimous decision victory.  The fight was fairly close, though Maia ended up dropping two of the three rounds unanimous across the three judge’s scorecards.  Chookagian has won two straight against Viviane Araujo and Cynthia Calvillo, and Maia has alternated wins and losses in her last five.  Chookagian should pick her apart on the feet if she’s able to keep control of the range in this smaller cage.  Maia’s path is the takedowns, but she’s never landed more than one in any of her UFC fights.  Three of Chookagian’s four UFC losses had her opponent land multiple.  I like Chookagian to get it done again and via decision.  Whether you bet the over or decision, it should be safe barring some freak finish.  17 of their combined 20 UFC fights have made the final bell. 

Implied probability:

Prediction: Katlyn Chookagian

Bet: Chookagian by DEC -120

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT (155 LBS): DAKOTA BUSH (8-3) VS VIACHESLAV BORSHCHEV (5-1)

Borshchev is a solid up and comer out of Faber’s Team Alpha Male, and has racked up a 5-1 record, with 4 of those wins via knockout.  Bush had a short notice debut for the UFC, and ended up losing a decision to Austin Hubbard, but comes into this one with a full camp.  Bush was slated to take on Zhu Rong back in September, but had to pull out as he tested positive for COVID, so it will be interesting to see if that has any impacts to his performance here a few months later.   Bush comes in as the dog, but has more experience than Borshchev, and its no secret he will be tested on the feet here.   Bush is a fast starter but as we saw in his last fight, he slows the longer the fight goes, and if the past COVID adds to that, it could lead to some issues here.  Bush and his grappling could snag him the first round, but I would expect Borshchev to regroup and/or just simply have the better tank after the first.  Borshchev has the proven gas tank and superior striking, and his only loss came via a split decision back in LFA in a fight that could have gone either way. 

Implied probability:

Prediction: Viacheslav Borshchev   

Bet: Pass

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT (145 LBS): JOANDERSON BRITO (12-2-1) VS BILL ALGEO (14-6)

Algeo could be a live dog here.  He’s game on the feet with the striking, and has actually out struck his opponent in three of his four UFC fights, though going 1-3 in those fights.  Why?  His inability to stay off his back.  Algeo has been taken down 20 times in the four UFC fights, but that can be deceiving because he’s a BJJ lack belt and has no issues while going to work on the mat.  Brito landed three takedowns of his own while earning his UFC contract back in August on the Contender Series, and eventually won via decision over Diego Lopes, but Lopes was more of a dead fish in comparison to what we will see from Algeo.  Lopes did sink in three submission attempts and I could see Algeo quite possibly having more success with a choke attempt.  That +650 prop is staring at me.  Watch for Brito to come out guns blazin’ in the first.  If Algeo stays composed and frustrates Brito while he dumps, I see Algeo taking over the later side of the fight.  As a side note, Brito’s corner tested positive for the virus.   This could play a factor throwing him off his normal cadence in between rounds.

Implied probability:

Prediction: Bill Algeo

Bet: Algeo +115

PREDICTIONS ON PRELIMS:

JOSEPH HOLMES defeats JAMIE PICKETT 

RAMIZ BRAHIMAJ  defeats COURT MCGEE

TJ BROWN defeats  CHARLES ROSA

BRIAN KELLEHER defeats KEVIN CROOM

BET SUMMARY:

Kattar/Chikadze O2.5 rounds

Collier -135

Royval -160 (look via TKO/KO +450)

Chookagian by DEC -120

Algeo +115

Holmes -135

*Waiting on a few late lines and may add a couple more plays.  Will post in discord.

2021 predictions: 296-179-8 (62%)

2021 wagers: 163-131-1 (55%)

Overall record while published at Sports Illustrated:

Predictions: 677-377-19 (64%)

Wagers: 373-218-9 (63%)

FOR DFS:

FOR THE DFS PLAYERS:

A couple of things I like to consider when playing MMA DFS:

·         Choose active fighters.  Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team.  Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores.  Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.

·         Play the heavyweights.  The approximant overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%.  Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate.  You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.

·         Try to always include the main event or title fights.  Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter.  In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.

·         Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size.  Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics.  Stats could be exaggerated.  Do your research.  Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well.  Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC.  Always pull fight tape as well.  You’d be surprised at what you will find.

·         Review methods of victory.  I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups.  For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.

Here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC VEGAS 46. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.

*CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE*

Some recommendations:

·         Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster.  (see my charts above)

·         Take a look at the title fight with the 5 rounds to work.  A couple extra potential rounds to rack up some points.

·         Top Tier fighters to build around include Chikadze, Royval

·         Mid Tier fighter considerations are Holmes, Borshchev

·         Live Dogs are Kelleher, Brown (both price errors)

·         Kattar with the five rounds worth considering as a pivot. 

Sample core:

Good luck everyone and I hope to see some of you cashing after Saturday night!

Casey

@Y2CASEY on the Twitter machine. Holler anytime.