Here’s some super quick thoughts for you guys.
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UFC Fight Night: STRICKLAND vs. IMAVOV
Saturday 1/14 at 4PM ET. Live from Las Vegas (UFC Apex) on ESPN+
MAIN CARD:
STRICKLAND defeats IMAVOV
· Gastelum pulls out due to a legit mouth injury so we insert Strickland, who was trying to get fat and go on a snowboarding trip. Strickland just headlined the last card like a month ago, so I’m not overly worried about his preparation coming into this one. He also arguably won that last fight against Cannonier, although I bet Cannonier and was happen with the ticket. After the weigh ins, Strickland had about 10lbs on Imavov but during the stare down they look close. This fight could be close out of the shoots, but I see a cardio edge late for Strickland. Unless something crazy goes down early, I don’t see Strickland losing. His volume and standup should snag him some rounds and result in a good bounce back after the L he took end of last year. Over 3.5 rounds -120 is a great line. Betting confidence below would be higher, but with short notice, slight downgrade for me.
IGE defeats JACKSON
· Newer fathers always worry me. Ige and his wife welcomed his son in 2021, but he looks motivated and fired up alongside his boy Soriano, also on the card. The Leach, re-nicknamed Action, Damon Jackson is riding a four fight win streak but I really see Ige a level up here. The stand up will be a clear advantage for Ige and with his boy fighting just before him, win or lose, Ige will be fired up for a finish. I could see Jackson getting clipped by Ige before the final bell. Jackson is on a tear & sneaky, but bad match up w/ Ige on the feet.
SORIANO defeats KOPYLOV
· Both these guys are dangerous on the feet and gas tanks will be tested. I don’t trust either even for 15 minutes. I will say if Soriano utilizes his grappling edge, he can take this one. Kopylov already has lost to Soriano’s training partner Albert Duraev not too long ago, don’t know MMA math here for me. Kopylov is live but I’m going to stay away betting wise. I lean Soriano.
VIEIRA defeats PENNINGTON
· Love how Pennington fights. She’ll trade blood and keep walking forward, and always heavy in the clinch. She’s won four straight and against some decent names, but Vieira may be a tough out here. Vieira looks to have patched up some cardio issues, which we saw against Yana Kunitskaya, and has since won two straight against former champs Miesha Tate and Holly Holm. I see Vieira with a game face here and Pennington slightly distracted with the pregnancy of her spouse Tecia Torres, announced last November. This line is close so no reason to box yourself into a prop, but this one more than likely heads to the cards.
NURMAGOMEDOV defeats BARCELOS
· Awesome fight here. Nurmagomedov is undefeated but Barcelos is a bad dude. Barcelos is getting up there in age though and will be 9 years older in comparison to Umar, who’s basically in his prime. I might be way off but the line on this one seems pretty disrespectful for Barcelos. Barcelos is durable and can hang on the feet but probably Umar does enough for a decision nod by end of day. DEC looks like a great price.
PRELIMS:
RAZAK ALHASSAN defeats RIBEIRO
REBECKI defeats FIORE
BASHARAT defeats MENDONCA
NASCIMENTO defeats HERNANDEZ
ARGUETA defeats AGUIRRE
JOHNSON defeats FLICK
BET CONSIDERATIONS:
Strickland +110 Confidence C+
Ige -125 Confidence B-
Vieira -125 (look DEC prop +155) Confidence B-
Rebecki via TKO/KO +120 Confidence B
Johnson/Flick U2.5 -190 Confidence A-
DFS PROJECTIONS:
AutoOpto lines:
*With MMA, I strongly encourage manually building, but here’s the opto’s that were spit out. I did not build a line this week.
DK
FD
GL~Casey
* If you missed it, Wildcard weekend newsletter was dropped last night.
Let’s go!!!! We’ve got some fights to bet!
Glad to see you got a local boy on your slate. Hope they do well. Great guys. Humble hammahs. Mahalo Casey. Appreciate you🤙🏽🍻