UFC Fight Night DFS Notes
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
Back to the MMA DFS grind we go. Earlier card than normal, I believe it kicks off around 1pm ET.
Last week, we did ok using the modeling below.
(Almost nabbed the first qualifier)
No rear view mirror.. here’s some thoughts on this weekend. My usual two cents first..
FOR THE DFS PLAYERS:
A couple of things I like to consider when playing MMA DFS:
· Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
· Play the heavyweights. The approximant overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
· Try to always include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
· Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
· Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.
Here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC Vegas 42. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual match-ups below.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two, key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.
Some recommendations:
· Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)
· Only two fights projected to NOT go to a decision:
Rothwell/Rogerio -225
Williams/Baeza -175
· For the main event, its all about Max Holloway. His las fight he scored 209 fantasy points. Not sure I’ve ever seen anyone that high. Averages 85+ but should be good to hit value even with his $9500 price tag. He’s going to be heavily owned but it will force you to snag the right dogs.
· Top Tier fighters to build around include: Holloway, Spencer
· Mid Tier fighter considerations are: Rothwell, Baeza, Casey, Jung
· Live Dogs that could score: Arce, Lee, Alvarez, Alves,Nzechukwu (like Jung more myself, but close) Alot will play Rodriguez as well with the price and 5 rounds to work.
Here’s a sample. Adjust away!