Here’s what I’ll say. Not the best card betting wise, but the fights will deliver. I expect some wild stuff over in Brazil Saturday night and its always cool to have a couple title fights on the card.
Here you go. My quick thoughts.
First.. if you haven’t but want to keep in touch..
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
Saturday 1/21 at 530PM ET. Live from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Prelims on ABC, followed by main card on PPV
MAIN CARD:
TEIXEIRA defeats HILL
· Its interesting to see that oddsmakers have this 5-round title fight lined at 1.5 rounds for the total, but can’t blame em. We got up and comer Jamahal Hill, who just smashes dudes with his speed and power, looking to come into Brazil and finish the old dog Glover Teixeira, who at 43 years young looks to take the vacant title in front of the hometown Brazilian crowd. Kind of seems meant to be for Glover to cap off an amazing career. This fight game though, all it takes is one shot, and if anyone can clip Glover, it’s Hill. Hill’s getting the shot of a lifetime here on just 6 week’s notice, and he’ll be taking the first his first fight of his career outside of the states, and of all places in the main event spot in front of a feisty Brazilian crowd. If the blue belt doesn’t connect early, he’s going to have a massive grappling disadvantage against Glover, who’s a superior black belt and proven tough as nails on the feet. Glover’s faced several guys with nukes in their hands and time after time, he’s got them to the mat and secured a choke. Highly likely this happens Saturday night again as long as he avoids getting clipped. Glover’s fight IQ and ability to stay calm when tested is unmatched, but I see him looking to take the offensive out of the shoots rather than letting young buck get control of the fight early on. This will cause Hill to engage even more early on, and through that melee, mistakes will be made. I lean Glover by sub and good shot this one could end in the first with both guy’s resumes filled with stoppages.
MORENO defeats FIGUEIREDO
· The UFC’s first ever quadrilogy fight with these two coming in 1-1-1 after the first three match ups. Figgy hasn’t fought in over a year while Moreno stayed busy by beating Kai Kara-France for the interim strap last July. Moreno looked fantastic in that fight and mentally is dialed in coming into this one. He basically invited Figgy to this showdown in Brazil, and has gone through a little camp drama with the whole Krause debacle, yet looks to be mentally on point after this fight week. Moreno for me has proven to be the more durable of the two, has the gas tank edge, and father time on his side, with Figgy up and over 35 years of age now. We have to remember Moreno will be fighting against not only the champ, but also this crowd and their swaying of the judges, and more than likely this one will get to the cards. Moreno will need to have clear, decisive moments in order to win the rounds, and if he fights anything like he did against KKF, things should end well for “The Assassin Baby.”
BURNS defeats MAGNY
· Tough match up for Magny in my opinion. He seems to struggle against these compact submission machines. I really see this as Burns’ fight to lose and somewhat of a set up for another crack at the title or at least in the mix. Magny’s path to victory is by KO and chances here are pretty slim. Magny hasn’t had a KO in like 7 years and his last knockout was against a can named Craig White. Burns ain’t no Craig White. Come on.
ANDRADE defeats MURPHY
· I see some folks giving Murphy a shot here against Andrade but I just don’t see it. Murphy has a slight wrestling edge if anything, but Andrade clearly is the more explosive fighter and will have volume, speed and power which we will see often and early. Andrade comes in landing over 6 strikes per minute and although Murphy is as tough as they come, I could see here taking some fight changing body shots, compromising her ability to play offense. Murphy is a tough out, only being finished once in 21 fights, but if anyone could get it done, its Andrade.
WALKER defeats CRAIG
· What a killer fight to kick off the pay per view. Two dudes you absolutely cannot trust with completely opposite tool belts. Craig has won 80% of his fights via submission, while Walker has about the same percentage of wins, but via knockout. There is no way Craig wants to stand with Walker, and Walker would be an idiot to roll with Craig, but we all know Walker has had some idiotic moments. Walker has literally no chin, but can really hurt you on the feet with his wild unorthodox style. He’ll come in all fired up too in front of this crowd and throw some mysteries, but I could see him catching Craig along the way. Craig is that dude that pretty much loses every fight early, then somehow comes back in the bottom of the ninth with some miracle time after time. Statistically, Craig absorbs more shots than he lands, and typically when he’s hurt, he’ll bait his opponent into a predicament on the mat. I think Walker lands something big though, and early. All three of Craig’s KO losses have been inside of one round. 11 of Walker’s last 12 knockouts have come roughly inside of 3 minutes or less of the fight. Book it.
PRELIMS:
RUA defeats POTIERIA (Retirement fight. I gotta roll with Shogun one last time then pour one out)
RODRIGUES defeats FERREIRA (good fight)
MOISES defeats COSTA
LAZZEZ defeats G. BONFIM
ALMEIDA defeats ABDURAKHIMOV (RIP Abdurakhimov)
LACDERDA defeats STAMANN (Dog sub spot)
I. BONFIM defeats MCKINNEY (If Bonfim can weather that first couple minutes, he’s live)
ALVES defeats DALBY (Alves has never lost in Rio de Janeiro)
NUNES defeats FAIRN (5’ 3” and is gonna smash)
MARCOS defeats OLIVEIRA
BET CONSIDERATIONS:
Teixeira SUB +250 Confidence C
Teixeira/Hill U1.5 rds +105 Confidence C+
Walker by TKO/KO -125 Confidence B-
Walker/Craig ends in rd 1 -120 Confidence B
Lazzez +140 Confidence C
Marcos +125 Confidence C+
I might take Almeida via TKO/KO prop. Most likely a sub, but that price is eyeing me. +180.
Also, Lacerda via SUB +700? Very live in my opinion.
Bunch of parlay and round robin options with these heavy fav Brazilians.
DFS/ ANALYTICS:
AutoOpto lines
DK
FD
Lets have some fun. Enjoy the fights!
~Casey
Awesome Casey!
Mahalo brother. Let’s get it!🤙🏽🍻