UFC 272 Betting Preview
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
#UFC272
MMA Betting Preview
Let’s do this.
Man, lots of DM’s this week means one thing. This is a big one. I did notice too that the pre-fight presser exceeded a million views very fast. Speaking of views, I’m dropping plays and DFS content pretty much daily over in the Vegas Whispers discord. A ton of you are in there already, but if you aren’t, let this be your alert as to where to find my daily stuff. This includes bets and DFS for all sports. Oh yea.. I like to give away memorabilia too. Come hang out! (@VegasWhispers on Twitter for the link)
Lets get back to it.
SATURDAY 03/05/22
BROADCAST: PPV – Prelims: ESPN
VENUE: T-Mobile Arena
LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
MATCHES: 13
WELTERWEIGHT BOUT (170 LBS): #1 COLBY COVINGTON (16-3) VS #6 JORGE MASVIDAL (35-15)
What a build up here. I’ve been known to tell my employees, “Emotions are expensive in the workplace,” and I could see some emotional mistakes being made in this one. Look, completely erase from your mind the WWE story telling that’s got this one sold. Compare these two stylistically and historically, and it should be clear who should win this one.
Masvidal from a technical standpoint in the standup would have his way with Colby if we were over at Bare Knuckle FC for this one, but unfortunately for “Gamebred,” the grappling is in play. Yea Colby will probably play for a bit acting like he’s willing to stand but we all know he will get back to his ways and go to work closing the distance and working the clinch. We’ll see some eventual takedowns, but Jorge will posture back to the feet better than most, but ultimately just tied up against the cage. You’d have to suspect that Colby will bleed at some point which will just lead to him closing the distance more and more leading to a frustrated Masvidal and T-Mobile crowd.
Not only is Jorge Masvidal 6-6 in his last 12 fights, but when his opponents land multiple takedowns in that span he’s just 1-4. (Ross Pearson is the 1 out of those Jorge beat, and Ross threw half the volume and was knocked down in that fight) Colby on the other hand, has landed 61 takedowns in his last 12 fights, when you exclude the Usman matchups. Avg. of over 5 per fight? …and he has five rounds to work here against a very durable Masvidal.
Man, I’d love to see Masvidal catch lightning one more time here though. Which happens to be his only path to victory.
Implied Probability:
Prediction: Colby Covington
Bet: Either pair Colby w/RDA or via DEC -105
CATCHWEIGHT BOUT (160 LBS): #6 RAFAEL DOS ANJOS (30-13) VS RENATO MOICANO (16-4-1)
Very surprised to see this one booked for the five rounds all this considered. This will be a huge letdown if RDA doesn’t get it done here. I’m a fan of Moicano, but you have to consider a few things here. Moicano has never beat a former title contender (0-3, Jung, Aldo, Ortega) let alone someone who’s held the belt such as RDA. Moicano has also traveled about 30 hours to get here over the last week all while cutting equivalent to a couple bowling balls to hit this catch weight. The guy has never had a five round fight either. You take all that out of the equation and RDA is still the better guy anywhere this one goes.
Implied Probability:
Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos
Bet: Dos Anjos -170 (also good to pair with Colby Covington for +106)
FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT (145 LBS): #10 EDSON BARBOZA (22-10) VS #11 BRYCE MITCHELL (14-0)
Its not often we get Barboza as a dog. In the past he was opened at plus money against Burgos, Khabib, and Pettis. You can guess the only fight out of those that resulted in Barboza as the rightful dog, and he actually took Khabib the distance.
This will be Mitchell’s toughest test to date, and his gameplan will be no secret. Avoid the nasty kicks, close and get this one to the mat. Barboza isn’t horrible with the takedown defense, the challenge though is his get ups. Getting this one down won’t be any walk through the cow pasture for “Thug Nasty,” and out of the shoots, expect Barboza to leverage his five-inch reach advantage while he peppers the legs, mid-range, and head while Mitchell plays double dutch looking to pounce from his southpaw stance. Considering Mitchell has maybe fought two guys ranked inside the top 100 in the division, I just wouldn’t feel right not taking Barboza here at this price.
Implied Probability:
Prediction: Edson Barboza
Bet: Barboza +140
WELTERWEIGHT BOUT (170 LBS): #14 KEVIN HOLLAND (21-7) VS ALEX OLIVEIRA (22-11-1)
The Brazilian Cowboy welcomes Holland down to 170 and will look to avoid dropping four straight, part of a 2-6 skid for the vet. Expect both to come out fast with this one getting ugly. The difference here is Holland’s durability and cardio is massive in comparison to Oliveira’s. As a matter of fact, historically, when Oliveira gets into some trouble, he folds pretty quickly. You don’t see many that tap as quick as he does. Don’t get me wrong, the guys is dangerous, but that danger drastically drops as that clock ticks away.
Implied Probability:
Prediction: Kevin Holland
Bet: Holland ITD -110
HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT (265 LBS): SERGEY SPIVAC (13-3) VS GREG HARDY (7-4)
Can’t really trust either of these guys. Hardy is mysteries in there anytime after the first round and Spivac has lost some very winnable fights while also beating a few he probably shouldn’t have. In this matchup, Hardy will have some massive size, but will lack the more “well rounded” skillset of Spivac. I’d suspect that Hardy comes out fast as he did against Tuivasa and will look to connect with some big shots with hopes of ending this one early before getting into a volume competition. For Spivac, its all about staying at a favorable distance, and peppering with the volume while landing takedowns as they become available. Gameplans will be present out of the shoots, but I suspect this turning into more of a fight where we see who ultimately possesses the better fight IQ and cardio. Mistakes will be made.
Implied Probability:
Prediction: Sergey Spivac
Bet: Fight wont start round 3: -138 (I like Spivac ITD, but there is that 295lb chance Hardy connects)
REST OF THE CARD:
JAMIE MULLARKEY defeats JALIN TURNER
MARINA RODRIGUEZ defeats XIAONAN YAN
KENNEDY NZECHUKWU defeats NICK NEGUMEREANU
MARIYA AGAPOVA defeats MARYNA MOROZ
UMAR NURMAGOMEDOV defeats BRIAN KELLEHER
TAGIR ULANBEKOV defeats TIM ELLIOTT
DEVONTE SMITH defeats L’UDOVIT KLEIN
DUSTIN JACOBY defeats MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUK
BET SUMMARY:
Covington via DEC -105
Dos Anjos -170
Barboza +140
Holland ITD -110
Spivac/Hardy: Fight won’t start round 3: -138
Nurmagomedov via SUB +175
Smith/Klein: Fight won’t start round 3: -135
PARLAY CONSIDERATIONS:
Covington/RDA parlay +106
Add Holland +156
Add Rodriguez +248
Here’s the famous heat chart for the DFS build:
Lets have a solid weekend. I want you to know I appreciate and see the tweets of support from some of you along the way. I see them all. You rule.
Casey