UFC 271 Predictions & DFS
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2
#UFC271
MMA Betting Preview
Sorry for the delay! Had a “scheduling conflict” with this little football game on Sunday.
I still gotta drop something for the squad, so let’s dive in.
SATURDAY 02/12/22
BROADCAST: Pay Per View – Prelims: ESPN
VENUE: Toyota Center
LOCATION: Houston, Texas
MATCHES: 15
THE MAIN CARD: (They’ve been adjusting the PPV but here’s the core three)
MIDDLEWEIGHT TITLE BOUT (185 LBS): (C) ISRAEL ADESANYA (21-1) VS #1 ROBERT WHITTAKER (23-5)
A lot of interest in the dog here as Whittaker has changed his approach a tad since his loss to Izzy. Since that fight, Whittaker has gone 3-0 on his march back to the title and has visibly stepped up his ground game. He’s almost tripled his takedown attempts in just the last three fights in comparison to his previous 10 fights or so. Its tough to beat an 80 inch reach though with the style Izzy brings on the feet. Sure, he was taken down four times against Marvin Vettori in his last fight, but he still cruised to a unanimous decision by simply outclassing him in the standup. We’ll see a much improved challenger here in this spot and if anything, I believe the takedowns (successful or not) will stretch this fight out, though ultimately resulting in the champ retaining. Adesanya has never been outstruck on the feet (except his one off move to LHW) and the trend will continue Saturday night. Remember, he’s 80-5 as a kickboxer before MMA. All time, previous winners heading into a title fight rematch run about 69%. Since 2012, its about an 80% success rate for the previous winner.
Prediction: Israel Adesanya
Bet: Fight goes to a decision: -112
Bet: Adesanya (look via DEC +150)
HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT (265 LBS): #3 DERRICK LEWIS (26-8) VS #11 TAI TUIVASA (14-3)
Lewis gets another crack for a dub in his hometown with less pressure and less rounds. Not that three rounds will even be needed as Tuivasa and Lewis are looking for that quick KO. Both these guys have an average fight time of less than two rounds. Lewis really gonna let this guy do a shoey in his back yard? I’m not sure about that. Tuivasa will look to close and make this one dirty. I wouldn’t be surprised if somehow Lewis ends up on top on the mat and if so, its over. But regardless, Tuivasa took some big shots against Hardy before sucking him in, but I don’t think Lews will make that same mistake. He’s much more calculated and considerably the most dangerous opponent Tuivasa will have faced to date. I mean Blagoy Ivanov knocked Tuivasa down. You think Lewis wont?
Prediction: Derrick Lewis
Bet: Lewis (look via KO -120)
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT (185 LBS): #3 JARED CANNONIER (14-5) VS #4 DEREK BRUNSON (23-7)
Brunson cannot compete with Cannonier on the feet. For him to win this fight he has to get this one down and I see him executing. Brunson has fought some decent guys acrossed this five fight winning streak and has landed 19 takedowns along the way. I can’t trust Brunson’s chin betting wise, but a win via decision holds some great value.
Prediction: Brunson via DEC (+250 is a great price)
Bet: Pass
REST OF THE CARD:
ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ defeats RENATO MOICANO
BOBBY GREEN defeats NASRAT HAQPARAST
JARED VANDERAA defeats ANDREI ARLOVSKI
CASEY O’NEILL defeats ROXANNE MODAFFERI
KYLER PHILLIPS defeats MARCELO ROJO
CARLOS ULBERG defeats FABIO CHERANT
RONNIE LAWRENCE defeats MANA MARTINEZ
AJ DOBSON defeats JACOB MALKOUN
SERGEY MOROZOV defeats D. SILVA DE ANDRADE
JEREMIAH WELLS defeats BLOOD DIAMOND
MAXIM GRISHIN defeats WILLIAM KNIGHT
BET SUMMARY:
Adesanya/Whittaker: Fight goes to a decision: -112
Adesanya (look via DEC +150)
Lewis (look via KO -120)
Hernandez/Moicano U2.5 -120
Vanderaa +130
Lawrence (look via DEC +110)
Wells (look via SUB +195)
PARLAY CONSIDERATIONS:
Wells/Morozov +109
Add O’Neil +164
Add Phillips +219
2022 predictions: 23-11 (68%)
2021 wagers: 15-8 (65%)
Overall record:
Predictions: 700-388-19 (64%)
Wagers: 388-226-9 (63%)
FOR DFS:
FOR THE DFS PLAYERS:
A couple of things I like to consider when playing MMA DFS:
· Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
· Play the heavyweights. The approximant overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
· Try to always include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
· Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
· Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.
Some recommendations:
· Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)
· Take a look at the title fights with the 5 rounds to work. A couple extra potential rounds to rack up some points.
· Top Tier fighters to build around include Adesanya, O’Neil, Phillips, Lawrence,
· Mid Tier fighter considerations are Lewis, Green
· Live Dogs are Vanderaa, Brunson, Hernandez
Good luck everyone and I hope to see some of you cashing after Saturday night!
Casey
@Y2CASEY on the Twitter machine. Hit me up.