UFC 270: N’Gannou vs. Gane
#UFC270
MMA Betting Preview
Big boys in a big one this weekend. Two must watch title fights preceded by some under the radar scraps. After the decision fest last weekend, oddsmakers have nine of the 13 scheduled bouts projected to be finishes on this card. You know what that means.
Let’s dive in.
SATURDAY 01/22/22
BROADCAST: Pay Per View – Prelims: ESPN
VENUE: Honda Center
LOCATION: Anaheim, California
MATCHES: 13
THE MAIN CARD:
HEAVYWEIGHT TITLE BOUT (265 LBS): (C) FRANCIS N’GANNOU (16-3) VS (IC) CIRYL GANE (10-0)
I don’t think I’ve seen so much uncertainty from a plethora of fight predictors as I have going into this one. N’Gannou vs Gane is an extremely intriguing matchup and some serious questions are about to be answered as to who is the true heavyweight king come Saturday night. N’Gannou with that lights out power who’s time after time been compared to Mike Tyson in his prime faces Gane, who’s an extremely talented heavyweight, who moves like a guy half his size. The drama show has begun to build later this fight week, as media members sucked N’Gannou into sharing a story of him knocking out Gane while in sparring, while “pro-Gane” members have been doing their part in attempts to poke the champ about anything and everything but the fight this Saturday. N’Gannou impressed me with how he handled the exhausting media week and with an incredible team in his corner, I can see him staying to the plan they have prepared in defeating Gane. If anyone can pose some problems for the champ, its Ciryl Gane. 13-0 as a kickboxer, he transitioned to MMA and has since racked up 10 consecutive wins. His ability to create space and consistently outwork his opponents in the standup is something. Gane is a switch fighter with great dexterity and will absolutely get busy with the leg kicks, often frustrating his foes. In all 22 rounds he’s had in the UFC, he has yet to be outstruck by his opponent, and he’s faced some big names along the way. Although big names, he’s faced some very predictable fighters, who when they go for the kill shot, really telegraph their bombs. N’Gannou is tricky though in that sense. The majority of his knockouts have resulted from shots that you typically wouldn’t see as fight finishers from other guys. N’Gannou can arguably be considered the hardest hitter in the UFC, but what helps him get that status is his remarkable speed. Though he’s not a big volume guy, when he engages its 1000% don’t blink for us as viewers. Its tough to look past the fact that he’s ran up five straight KO wins since his odd three rounds decision to Derrick Lewis, where the two fighters combined for like 30 strikes total, none of which did much. N’Gannou has really flipped a switch since that night and fights with full intent to finish. In his last five fights, he’s slept the likes of Miocic, JDS, Blaydes, Velasquez, and Rozenstruik. Three of those names are former champs, and Rozenstruik had never been finished in his MMA career, and entered the sport after having 85 kickboxing matches. Remember, N’Gannou finished him in their first exchange like 20 seconds into the fight.
For me in this one, its either N’Gannou continuing the string of knockouts (with 25 minutes to work), or Gane outworking his way to a decision. I mean we could see some freak submission spot, but the probability is slim. That’s what makes this fight a tough one to wager on. Gane isn’t much of a finisher by any means, and rather extends fights into deep waters. His two UFC knockouts came against JDS, who was undoubtably on the downhill slope of his prime, and Derrick Lewis, who isn’t afraid to throw in the towel when he’s had enough. Neither guy was “out, out.” N’Gannou on the other hand has never been finished, and his only UFC losses have come by way of decision, when he was grappled to death by Miocic after almost finishing him in their first fight, and the odd Lewis three rounder that followed that one up. What may help N’Gannou inside of the 25 minutes, is the fact that Gane does stay incredibly busy in there, and at times when he closes, he hangs his chin out there, ala Derek Brunson. If N’Gannou catches him, the fight changes instantly from what most likely should happen when looking at this one on paper, which is Gane by decision. Gane has gotten himself into exchanges in there and taken damage (see later in the Volkov fight), but never against a guy like N’Gannou. N’Gannou impressed me big time with the defense and grappling improvements he showed against Miocic in their second fight. He will need that and more here in this matchup if he looks to retain. Although I keep having flashbacks of Buster Douglas putting it on Mike Tyson, the fact that the champ here is plus money against a guy whose highest ranked opponent to date, has been Derrick Lewis, can’t be denied. This will be one I’ll be taking power over precision at a dog price.
Implied probability:
Prediction: Francis N’Gannou
Bet: N’Gannou +130
FLYWEIGHT TITLE BOUT (125 LBS): (C) BRANDON MORENO (19-5-2) VS #1 DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO (20-2-1)
This will be the third consecutive fight for these two. They went to a five-round draw in their first, and the follow up resulted in a route by the current champ Moreno. Although Figueiredo comes in looking incredibly prepared for this one, I believe Moreno has his number. Figueiredo has a tendency to really load up his shots, and not only does that put a dent in your gas tank over time, against a guy like Moreno who has incredible movement, he will get countered over and over. Figueiredo will come out fast and this again, will eventually get this fight to the mat, and we saw the slickness Moreno had I their last go when that happened. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw it happen again, really putting a stamp on this rivalry. You’d have to think the very “pro-Moreno” crowd could sway some judging too, right? And still.
Implied probability:
Prediction: Brandon Moreno
Bet: Moreno -175
WELTERWEIGHT BOUT (170 LBS): MICHEL PEREIRA (26-11) VS ANDRE FIALHO (14-3)
When Pereira doesn’t hit the wrong buttons on his joystick, he actually can be a very good fighter. Here he welcomes Andre Fialho to the UFC, a fighter known for a high finish rate, and is riding a four fight win streak all by KO. Although fighting his entire career outside of the org so far, he’s fought some familiar names which include Stefan Sekulic, James Vick, Chris Curtis, and Chidi Njokuani. Although Pereira has been known to underperform in fights he should cruise in, I still like him in this spot, especially with the improved fight IQ we’ve seen in his last couple fights. Unbettable number though for me.
Implied probability:
Prediction: Michel Pereira
Bet: Parlay worthy
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT (135 LBS): #15 CODY STAMANN (19-4-1) VS SAID NURMAGOMEDOV (14-2)
Nurmagomedov has now gone 3-1 since entering the UFC, and is coming off a KO finish in less than a minute against Mark Striegl. He’s been inactive for over a year. Cody Stamann has been inactive as well as of late, only fighting once last year, and looks to get back on track here to kick off the year. It’s a very winnable fight for him, but the path will absolutely be initiating the takedowns and controlling Nurmagomedov on the mat. The challenge for Stamann will be closing in on Nurmagomedov and avoiding the striking with the great footwork and movement we’ve see from him in the past. Stamann’s last three losses have come against guys that can match or over take him in the grappling (Dvalishvili, Rivera, Sterling), and I just don’t see that happening here. This should be a very close fight but again, the difference will be if Stamann can in fact secure those takedowns and win at least two of the three rounds.
Implied probability:
Prediction: Cody Stamann
Bet: Stamann by DEC +240
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT (185 LBS): RODOLFO VIERA (8-1) VS WELLINGTON TURMAN (17-5)
Turman is a live dog here in this spot. Viera’s go to is the submissions, but Turman has never been submitted in his 22 career fights, and actually has never been taken down six fights into his tenure with the UFC. Outside of Vieira’s bust against Fluffy Hernandez, where he gassed after just one round, he’s finished all his other opponents along the way. His last fight against Dustin Stoltzfus was a bit of a sweat, and he didn’t lock in the sub until the final round in a fight he was probably down in. In this matchup, I see Vieira taking the early side of the fight, with Turman looking to bounce back late. Could be a 29-28 type fight.
Implied probability:
Prediction: Rodolfo Vieira
Bet: Pass
PREDICTIONS ON PRELIMS:
TOPURIA defeats JOURDAIN
BARCELOS defeats HENRY
GILES defeats MORALES
MADDALENA defeats RODRIGUEZ
GRAVELY defeats OLIVEIRA
DEMOPOULOS defeats GOMEZ JUAREZ
FREVOLA defeats VALDEZ
JASUDAVICIUS defeats HANSEN
BET SUMMARY:
N’Gannou +130
Moreno -175
Stamann by DEC +240
Frevola by DEC +180
Demopoulos -140
Jasudavicius +190
PARLAY CONSIDERATIONS:
Stamann/Nurmagomedov FGTD + Pereira -107
Stamann/Nurmagomedov O2.5 + Maddalena + Barcelos +111
2022 predictions: 7-3 (70%)
2021 wagers: 5-1 (83%)
Overall record:
Predictions: 684-380-19 (64%)
Wagers: 378-219-9 (63%)
FOR DFS:
FOR THE DFS PLAYERS:
A couple of things I like to consider when playing MMA DFS:
· Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
· Play the heavyweights. The approximant overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
· Try to always include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
· Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
· Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.
Here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC 270. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.
Some recommendations:
· Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)
· Take a look at the title fights with the 5 rounds to work. A couple extra potential rounds to rack up some points.
· Top Tier fighters to build around include Barcelos, Maddalena, Pereira
· Mid Tier fighter considerations are Moreno, Gane, Gravely
· Live Dogs are N’Gannou, Stamann, Jasudavicius
Samples:
Good luck everyone and I hope to see some of you cashing after Saturday night!
Casey
@Y2CASEY on the Twitter machine. Hit me up.
I've seen this a couple times today...
just got of phone with buddy who knows everybody . knows behind scenes stuff . telling me ngannou knee is messed up coming into tonight . needs surgery type thing but will suck it up
So what does this do to DFS? Opt out of NG on Lineups?