Superbowl props and predictions
We are closing in!
Some quick updates on the novelty props.
National Anthem:
11 max bets came in all at once on the over 100 seconds. Line has moved to 104. Rehearsals commence Friday, though they got Bon Jovi masking the sound.
Gatorade update:
Clear went from +700 to +260
Blue +1100 to +325
A handful have hit “none” at +800
Halftime update:
As of Friday morning, word is first song is “Next Episode” with Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg. Eminem’s first song is “Lose Yourself.”
Under 10.5 songs has been the popular play.
As for Snoop Dogg’s shoe color or Mary J Blige’s earing choice? Who knows. Oddsmakers have “Hoop/Huggie” earings the fav at -120 and Snoop’s shoe color fav currently is BLUE at +285.
We will keep the convo going in the discord.
Lets get to the game.
LAR vs CIN (SoFi Stadium - Dome)
OPEN: O/U 50.0 LAR -3.5
LIVE: O/U 48.5 LAR -4
TOP TEAM TRENDS:
Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Rams are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Rams are on 5-1-1 run vs. Cincinnati dating back to ‘96
Bengals are 13-2 ATS(L15G) - 1000 or more travel miles
Rams are 3-12 ATS(L15G) - On winning streak of 3 or more games
TOP TOTAL TRENDS:
Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Rams last 8 games on turf.
Under is 27-10-1 in Rams last 38 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 7-0 in Bengals last 7 playoff games.
Under is 7-1 in Rams/Bengals series since 1993, including 5-0 (L5)
Over is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
So first off, who wins?
I mean, you could sit at the bar and hear some real sharp people point out the drunken obvious. “The Rams are playing at their own stadium here!” “The Bengals lost to the Jets this year!”
The Bengals earned their right to be here. They pulled off an amazing comeback on the road against the Chiefs after being down 21-3, never were behind the entire game against the Titans, and a similar situation against the Raiders in the Wild Card game. They’ve gone 6-1 in their last seven games and if you consider the “home field advantage” line adjust of 3-4, its almost as if oddsmakers see this as a pickem’ on a true neutral field.
The Rams have had a little stronger run heading into this one, though squeaked by in some close games this postseason outside of their beatdown of the Cardinals. They are 8-1 in their last nine games, and have really backed the respect they received coming into this season as a viable Superbowl futures winner. They are the rightful favorite in this game.
So a couple takes on my end.
Let’s talk head coaches.
Bengals HC Zac Taylor previously was the Rams assistant wide receivers coach in 2017, followed that up as their quarterbacks coach in 2018. From there he went on to become the Bengals head coach in 2019 and brings a career record of 19-32-1.
Rams HC Sean McVay has been at the helm since 2017. He’s taken the team to the playoffs now in four of his five seasons and makes his second Superbowl appearance this weekend. The guy is a wizard. He probably remembers what he had for lunch on the 42nd day of his high school freshman year. His career record stands at 61-29 as a head coach.
EDGE: Definite edge goes to the Rams.
Team rankings for the season:
When correlating 20+ offensive team statistics the Rams come out 8th overall, while the Bengals sit in the 15th position. On the defensive side, the teams are fairly close, with the Rams 15, followed by the Bengals ranked 17th.
EDGE: Goes to the Rams on both sides of the ball.
Scoring margin:
Rams scored 52 TDs this season (41 Rec TDs, 10 Rush TDs)
Bengals scored 54 TDs this season (36 Rec TDs, 16 Rush TDs)
Average scoring margin for each:
EDGE: Sixes.
Historical Super Bowl trends:
Favorites are 28-24 ATS and 36-18 SU. If you pick the winner you should be in good shape. Historically, the team who wins the game is 47-6-2 ATS in Super Bowl history.
Underdogs are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 Super Bowl games.
Nine of the last 10 Super Bowls played in California have gone over the total.
MY PREDICTION: Rams win the Super Bowl SU and ATS.
BET: Rams -4 (-110)
OTHER PROPS:
Coin Toss: Defer
BET: Defer (-300 to -500)
Since 2008, 12 of the 13 Superbowl coin flip winners have opted to defer. That includes 11 straight in that run. Sean McVay since becoming head coach of the Rams in 2017, has won the coin toss 48 times and has deferred every time. On the “flip” side, Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has won the coin toss rights 27 times. Taylor has deferred 26 of those 27 times. The Bengals have won the toss twice during this year’s playoffs and have deferred both times.
Opening Kickoff a Touchback: No +110
BET: Pass
26 of the last 28 Super Bowls have resulted in NO touchback on the opening kickoff. This seems like a lock, right?
1st Quarter Spread: Rams
BET: Rams -1 +120
When looking at who scores first, the Rams are 13-7 in the 20 games played this season including the postseason. They are 4-1 in their last five and have that home field edge here. The Bengals are 8-12, and just 1-4 in their last five.
1st Quarter Total: Under
BET: Pass on 9.5
The Rams are 6-14 to the under while the Bengals are 6-13-1. The teams are combined 3-6-1 (LAR 1-4, CIN 2-2-1) in their combined last five games.
First to Score: Rams
BET: Rams -135
The Rams have scored first in six of their last seven games, while the Bengals have done it just once in their last five.
First Score Method: Field Goal
BET: Pass
In five of the last six Super Bowls, the first score has been a field goal. Both teams have done this in just two of their last five games heading into this one. Not enough trend for me.
Highest Scoring Half: 2nd half
BET: 2nd half -120
The Bengals are historically slow starters and I had already mentioned the massive trend towards the under out of the shoots for both teams in the first quarter. As the teams shake the nerves, after Snoop and crew do their halftime thing, we should see some excitement in the 2nd half of the game points wise.
Most Sacks: Rams
BET: Rams -225
This offensive/defensive line matchup will cause some issues for Joey B. If the Titans could sack him 9 times, you’d have to think this Rams squad gets to him too.
Anytime TD scorer: Odell Beckham Jr.
BET: OBJ +120
Although he’s only brought one in this postseason, his targets have gone up in each of the three games. Lots of attention will be placed on Cooper Kupp, so OBJ should a solid option with Higbee and Jefferson both banged up.
Cooper Kupp: OVER 105.5 REC YDs
BET: OVER 105.5 -115
He’s soared over this number in seven of his last nine games. The Bengals have struggled to defend the slot receivers and have allowed over a 70% completion rate. Kupp lines up in the slot 73% of his routes.
Cooper Kupp: Longest reception OVER 28.5 YDs
BET: OVER 28.5 -135
Kupp has exceeded this number in 15 of his 20 games this year. The Bengals rank 20th in yards allowed per target and 27th in catch rate to wideouts.
Ja’Marr Chase: Longest reception OVER 27.5 YDs
BET: OVER 27.5 YDs -115
Chase has exceeded this number on 14 receptions this season, half were when Burrow was blitzed. Burrow will be running for his life Sunday night.
Joe Mixon: UNDER 62.5 rush YDs
BET: UNDER 62.5 -110
I considered betting the under 16.5 rush attempts here but I like the yard prop better in this case. Mixon has been the go to for the Bengals, carrying the ball 17 or more times in 63% of his games played this year. Against the Rams though, only four running backs have exceeded this line this season, as typically the Rams opponents are playing catch up. Plus, the Rams run defense is no joke. Looking at the yards prop though, Mixon has only gone over this number twice in his last eight games, and has averaged 58.9 yards over that stretch. Now insert the Rams. The Rams have only allowed six running backs to hit this total this season. They allow just 3.65 yards per carry and even if Mixon hits the 16.5 attempts, we are still only looking at 60 yards at best.
Matt Stafford: OVER 1.5 pass TDs
BET: OVER 1.5 -230
Team total is just shy of four TDs for the game. Stafford has thrown two or more in nine of his last 10 games.
Joe Burrow: OVER 0.5 INTs
BET: OVER 0.5 INTs -145
Burrow typically looks as if he’s taking his sweet time back there. He’ll be pressed to make some quicker decisions in this game which should lead to at least a mistake or two resulting in a pick off. He’s thrown one in each of his last two post season games.
A quick summary recap:
BET:
Rams -4 (-110)
Coin toss result: DEFER
1st Quarter Spread: Rams -1 -110
First to score: Rams -135
Highest Scoring Half: 2nd half -120
Most Sacks: Rams -225
Anytime TD scorer: Odell Beckham Jr. +120
Cooper Kupp: OVER 105.5 REC YDs -115
Ja’Marr Chase: Longest reception OVER 27.5 YDs -115
Joe Mixon: UNDER 62.5 rush YDs -110
Matt Stafford: OVER 1.5 pass TDs -230
Joe Burrow: OVER 0.5 INTs -145
CONSIDER:
Opening Kickoff a Touchback: No +110
1st Quarter Total: Under 9.5 -110
First Score Method: Field Goal +125
MVP Von Miller +2700
MVP Aaron Donald +1000
Thanks for reading.
Casey