NFL week 17 DFS & more.
NFL PROPS & DFS FOR SUNDAY, 1/2
Here we go! Home stretch of probably the wildest fantasy season ever.
Let’s cash a tourney and some tickets!
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As you may have seen, Sports Illustrated had me inputting my five best bets each week on Sharp Rank, then highlighting the staff picks each week. Here’s what I landed on for week 17:
LV/IND OVER 45
CIN +4.5
TEN -3.5
AZ +6
SEA/DET OVER 41.5
A couple of props that caught my eye:
Herbert OVER 1.5 TDs -145
Wilson OVER 1.5 TDs +100
Stafford OVER 286 yards
Metcalf Anytime TD +140
Let’s jump into some DFS and hit that pay line.
First, a couple of players closing in on their performance bonuses and records for the year. Good info to consider for either fantasy or player props.
· Antonio Brown needs 11 receptions, 281 yard, 2 TDs for $333,000 bonus on each.
· Cooper Kupp needs 231 yards and 18 catches to break single-season records.
· Kyle Pitts needs 128 yards to break rookie TE record.
· Russell Wilson needs to finish season with a 66% pass completion rate for $250,000. He’s currently at 64.9%.
· Stefon Diggs gets $658,333 if he snags over 100 receptions. He’s at 89.
Let’s build a winning lineup. You all probably have your method down, so don’t go changing anything, but I thought I’d share my starting point with DFS.
I look at a ton, but here’s one of the first things I review when building my squad.
I like to look at team total projections, then compare with the opponent’s team defensive rankings for both pass yards per game, and rush yards per game.
Here’s how the week stacks up:
Looks like the usual suspects are going to blow up the scoreboard. (BUF, TB, DAL) NE looks to beat up on JAX, as does SF facing HOU, but we will see.
When you look to the right, I have their opponent’s defense performance, or lack of. BLUE you want to target for your lineups, and big pass on the RED.
Example: The Rams are facing Baltimore, who ranks 32nd, giving up 280.5 pass yards per game. That would put Matt Stafford and our boy Cooper Kupp in a prime spot. But can you pay up for them?
Let’s take a gander at QB as a quick example.
For QB, lets look at the top tier teams projected to put up some points, coupled with the best pass defense matchups.
So we have Stafford, Hurts, Mahomes, Brady, Allen with team total projections looking hot, while also up in the top tier as it relates to the pass defense they will face. Big pass on a couple up there even with good matchups, they aren’t projected to produce many points.
A sneaky spot is Trey Lance. Jimmy G is doubtful and Lance is priced at just $4800 and have a favorable matchup against Houston, and the 49ers are projected to score 28.25.
To keep you from getting bored, I’ll save you the time and not post examples for each position. If you want to chat through any, holler. (@Y2casey on Twitter)
There’s a starting point for what I like to look at before diving into the weeds and putting together all the last-minute news before kickoff.
Here’s the start of my build.
Thanks for reading!
Casey