Dana White's Contender Series: Week 10
Here we go.. one more week of the Contender Series on deck, then we roll right into a stacked UFC 268 this weekend.
Gotta love the Tuesday Night Fights. Brings me back to watching boxing every Tuesday on the USA Network.
We’ve done well this season on Tuesdays and hope to bring it home in this final week. I’d say its a tougher card, but I see a good one on deck. Here’s some thoughts.
ESTREMADURA vs MAHESHATE
Both guys with their first fights in the states. Big opportunity here, no pressure. Maheshate might be kind of a fraud as he hasn’t beat anyone with a winning record. He does though come from a reputable gym (Enbo Fight Club) which has some studs, but not sure how that alone can have us dropping some coin on him. At 21 years of age, this is a big spot for Maheshate and all things considered, and I believe he will eventually fold to the Canadian prospect with the better resume.
Prediction: Estremadura by eventual finish via strikes
Consider: Either pairing Estremardura w/Burlinson, or the ITD prop.
LAINESSE vs BURLINSON
Both guys undefeated. This should be good with the contract on the line. Lainesse is fresh off winning the Cage Fury belt back in July finishing Evan Cutts inside of two. He’s an athletic guy in there and will be moving a bunch, switching his stance while keeping his opponent guessing. He definitely commits in there and it will open up some takedown opportunities if Burlinson times things right. Speaking of, Burlinson is game on the feet and will look to control the stand up, cutting off the movement and closing for some big shots or pivoting to the grappling. He’ll have the advantage on the mat and typically stays busy from top. When Lainesse loads up and looks to land, I see mistakes made here against a guy like Burlinson. Inside the distance worth a look too.
Prediciton: Burlinson by SUB
Consider: Burlinson paired with Estremadura, or ITD prop.
QIU vs FERREIRA
Ferreira is explosive, has some hands, and has won via knockout in all 10 of his victories, with 8 of them coming in the first round. His opponents though, have been some serious cans along the way. Qiu is a step up and has definitely fought the tougher opponents with the majority of his 7 losses coming later in the fights. I mean all things point to Ferreira bullying this guy, but don’t get caught speeding. Not sure I see a line on this fight I like.
Prediction: Ferreira by TKO/KO
Consider: Ferreira in a round robin, or TKO/KO prop, or under rounds.
BILHARINHO vs KAWAIHAE
The Brazilian Conor McGregor is back and hasn’t been very active over the last several years. He’s fought twice since 2015 though had been booked a couple times since with the fights falling through. Here, he looks to possibly snag a contract, but must go through Contender Series alum Canaan Kawaihae, who’s back for a second go, after losing a unanimous decision to Chase Hooper back in 2018. Both fighters only have just one loss on their records and are finishers, with Bilharinho packing some knockout power, and Kawaihae with the submission game. Kawaihae will be probably the toughest wrestler Bilharinho’s faced to date. Kawaihae will eventually go for the takedowns, but along the way will have to avoid the nasty kicks Bilharinho is known for, but I think he can and will get this one down to the mat. This will be a difference maker and it will be a needed part of Kawaihae’s gameplan, as he’ll want to avoid the knockout power from Bilharinho along the way. I am concerned though with Kawaihae’s gas tank the longer this one goes, but I’m going to side with the wrestler here vs the older, less active (as of late) striker.
Prediction: Kawaihae
Consider: Kawaihae straight up
SHANG vs PUERTA
Shang is considered the #2 flyweight in the China Regional Rankings. He’s slick on the mat and has 23 finishes overall across his 32 victories. He’s 32-7 overall and has only been finished three times and is currently riding a 20-fight win streak dating back to 2016. He’s usually the bigger fighter in there but in this case, Puerta will have some size on him. Puerta will have some decent grappling to offer on his side as well, but is pretty limited with power on the feet. He only has one KO finish in 28 fights, and it happened to be via a flying knee. I expect Shang to be the aggressor on the feet, though the size of Puerta may pose some issues along the way. This will force Shang to go to the takedown attempts and with Puerta’s abilities, this should stretch out the fight. That said, I’m looking for an over rounds prop on my end. Overall, I would lean to the Puerta side, but I see the fight much closer than oddsmakers do which has me considering the dog. Over rounds though.
Prediction: Puerta
Consider: Over rounds
Thanks for reading. Message on twitter (@y2casey) if you dig this stuff, or would like to see anything different. I’m all ears.
Casey