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We got a drunk UFC card this weekend, featuring ZERO ranked fighters (Ladd don’t count) but the hardcore fantasy folk will still get down. You know you have a lineup reserved. 😊
If you jumped in already, you are better than me, but you know I’ll probably throw one or two in before go time. It appears we are now down to 10 fights with Marquez getting yanked due to the elusive “non-Covid” illness, so get ready for some ties galore. Some decent tourneys are out there all things considered and it looks like FanDuel tried to take a week off, but after myself and others hit them up, they dropped their usual plethora.
Soon, I’d like for us fam to have some fun and I’ll drop some squad only tourneys along the way. Winner gets a replica belt or something. Lets think on it.
For now.. here’s some thoughts on this weekend. My usual two cents first..
FOR THE DFS PLAYERS:
A couple of things I like to consider when playing MMA DFS:
· Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
· Play the heavyweights. The approximant overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
· Try to always include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
· Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
· Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.
Here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC Vegas 40. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual match-ups below.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two, key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.
Some recommendations:
· Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)
· Fights projected to NOT go to a decision:
o Ladd/Dumont -120
o Fiorot/Bueno -110
o Sanchez/Silva -235
o Klein/Landwehr -230
· For the main event, both are in play with the 5 rounds and volume. The female fights always deliver with the scoring criteria. I prefer Dumont though.
· Top Tier fighters to build around include: Klein, Fiorot, Emeev
· Mid Tier fighter considerations are: Silva, Miller (rd 1 sub?)
· Live Dogs that could score: Dumont, Davis, Arlovski
Some quick match up thoughts:
Ladd vs Dumont:
Ok so Ladd has looked like the next big thing in the past, but she’s been on the shelf for almost 2 years and going up a weight class here. Ladd gets hit just about as much as she lands, while Dumont has some slick defense. Dumont will be the bigger of the two and was just prepping for months for former boxer Holly Holm. Think she ain’t ready? Dumont for me but if you play multiple, throw a Ladd in there with the 5 rounds.
Arlovski vs Felipe:
So Felipe covered his scar from his last beatdown with a face tattoo that says brawler?
I’ll bet you a cookie he throws his hands up like a Diaz bro and tries to smalk talk the vet into a war. Arlovski fights very defensive as of late while he stacks his cash. I like Arlovski but I’m not trying to roster either of these two, even as heavyweights. Weird fight on deck.
Gonzalez vs Miller:
A guy with more fights in the UFC than anyone vs a debuting fighter. Miller’s back from Covid so we will see how it impacts how much time it takes him to sub this guy.
Fiorot vs Bueno:
Fiorot is a stud. Lands more than anyone on the card statistically. Her toughest UFC test to date but I still think she goes ham.
Sanchez vs Silva:
Anything can happen here. Path for Sanchez is the close and wrestle this guy looking to sub, while Silva will want to go ham on the feet. If I came up on a fork in the road, I’m walkin’ to Silva’s house.
Klein vs Landwehr:
Landwehr has this cult following pending a Snopes review. Klein should be able to connect early on. Landwehr only starts fighting after he gets tagged, and when Klein tags him (16 finishes in his 17 wins) it may be too late. Plus Klein grew out his beard. Bonus points.
Carolina vs Godinez:
Godinez making the quickest turnaround ever. She won in like 40 seconds just a week ago and steps in to face the much bigger fighter in Luana Carolina. Godinez gonna take her down and get to work.
Roberts vs Emeev:
Emeev should win but might struggle hitting value fantasy wise. Probably a pass for me with other spots out there.
Davis vs Batgerel:
Davis a good dog spot. He looked pretty sucked in at the weigh ins, but he should be good to go. The guy is heavily motivated to earn and keep his spot on the roster after this short notice call. Great spot for him and us with a cheap fantasy price tag and ability to score.
Carnelossi vs Nunes:
Go measure your pythons real quick because Carnelossi might have you here. She throws some bombs, but I can’t get caught speeding here. Istela Nunes is 50-4 as a Muay Thai fighter, and has some experience in some big spots. I think Nunes will show some technical mojo here and Carnelossi will have her moments but they may not be enough. Another dog to keep an eye on.
A couple sample lines could be:
Nunes, Davis, Dumont, Miller, Fiorot, Emeev
Nunes, Davis, Dumont, Miller, Fiorot, Klein
Nunes, Davis, Silva, Miller, Klein, Ladd
Good luck brutha!🤙🏽🍻